18/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Supremacy Stakes day

Date:

Nine races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Supremacy Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Supremacy Stakes

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Race 1. (15:19) Tabtouch Handicap (0MWLY) 1000m

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Back Me

Back to 1000m I do like for 2 Some Sort (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
). Team Gangemi trained gelding that ran two weeks ago over 1200m here where he attempted to lead throughout and he gave a solid kick but the six furlongs was just a bridge too far for him behind Here’s Dreaming, just feeling the pinch late. Like him back in trip, he should lead comfortably from the gate and prove hard to run down.

Danger

1 Sir Mambo (Bet Now: 
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) is generally around the mark at this level so he commands respect. He is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he was doing work from the wide gate and that early burn just told late when close up in defeat behind Moi Choux, who would be favourite against these. Should prove to be a leading contender.

Long Shot

3 Silkinize (Bet Now: 
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) is getting on in years and is hard to catch but his best is good enough. He ran in the Moi Choux race from three weeks back here where he did no work from the inside draw but couldn’t get into the contest but that said, he was on the plain side behind the in form sprinter. Not sure he’s going well enough to win but one for exotics.

Race 2. (16:05) Amelia Park Handicap (66+) 1600m

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Back Me

5 Mountain Ash (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) should prove hard to beat for Dan Morton. He is racing in career best form this guy, his latest run being two weeks ago at this track/distance where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite finish it off, nabbed late by Currimundi. The last bit I think will test but if he is able to get a cheap furlong or two in front, he’ll take running down.

Danger

1 Friaresque (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) is rising ten years of age but gee he’s a beauty. Four weeks between runs since racing over the mile at Pinjarra on Magic Millions Day where he got back off the speed and found the line pretty well late in the piece when third to Bragwell. The depth here, as a whole, isn’t overly strong, and despite the break between runs, he appeals as one of the leading chances.

Long Shot

4 Arnie’s Boy (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) is a sneaky knockout chance. Thought he did more than enough fresh at Pinjarra behind Bragwell before going to the Esperance Cup where they rode him completely upside down, leading, and he tired late behind the very much in form Soviet Spy. Not sure I could back him to win, but with a more patient steer, he can pinch a first four spot.

Race 3. (16:49) Dudley Preston Handicap 1200m

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Back Me

2 Cosmopolitan Girl (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) is a quality filly for Team Pearce that resumes and I think she can resume a winner. She hasn’t raced since November 16 Northam when near the speed over 1000m and battled away well behind Moi Choux, who has gone on to be a proper Saturday metro class horse. Resumes without a trial but 1200m fresh tells me there is intent and she does have a bit of quality about her.

Danger

4 Leniency (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) resumes for Colin Webster and commands respect. He had three runs in the Winter to start his career and he got better with each run, ending the prep on a high with a spank job win over 1400m at Belmont. Given a good break and his trial win at Belmont to get ready was a lovely piece of work. Tricky gate to overcome, but think he’ll take beating.

Long Shot

3 Prawns Eleven (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) has to be given another chance. Game second fresh over 1200m at Pinjarra before going back to 1000m at Ascot where he got very keen in the run and that left him with nothing in the tank late when third to Street Parade, a well held third. Like him back up to 1200m and with luck from the wide gate, he can bounce back.

Race 4. (17:25) Glenroy Chaff Handicap (72+) 1800m

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Back Me

6 Ciscojoe (Bet Now: 
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) has won at 1700m and off recent runs, the rise to 1800m suits. Bernie Miller trained gelding that ran over the mile two weeks ago here and I thought was good to the line from off the speed when fourth to Birdieagle, beaten around 1.5L. The recent runs at the mile have suggested that a rise to 1800m is fine and Carbery sticks from recent runs, so he appeals.

Danger

1 Weaponson (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) has been in work a fair while but is continuing to hold his form really well. Did a little bit of work from the wide gate in the Birdieagle race from a fortnight back and he tried his guts out but couldn’t quite get there, eventually having to settle for a second. Gets in well after the claim and despite a tricky gate, he is one of the main threats.

Long Shot

I don’t think 7 Ration Aly (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) can win but for wider exotics, I can certainly entertain her. She ran two weeks back over the mile here where she was near the speed throughout and was there to threaten but just whacked away late behind Birdieagle. Has performed well up to 2150m so 1800m is no issue for her and is only fourth up, so you’d think there is room for improvement.

Race 5. (18:00) Quayclean Handicap (66+) 1000m

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Back Me

5 Top Of The Pops (Bet Now: 
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) is better suited over a bit further but he does have a bit of quality about him and confident he can resume with a win against the older horses. He resumes for Dan Morton, having not raced since October 8 at this track/distance when a closing fourth to Snowdome after getting a fair way back in the run. Couple of strong trials under the belt, he has the grounding to run a beauty fresh.

Danger

3 Bopping Blue (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) is a 1000m specialist who races best with fresh legs so he clearly appeals. First run Anne King came over this trip down the straight at Pinjarra where class came to the fore and he was too good in a great return. He has proven himself at metro level previously and drawn gate one, on speed, he’ll take running down.

Long Shot

8 Mantelli (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) hasn’t won in a long time but he has the set up here to be around the mark for Team Gangemi. He ran over this track/distance two weeks back where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a strong kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Supersession. He’ll land on the bunny here and with no weight on his back, he’ll give a sight.

Race 6. (18:35) Mrs Mac’s Handicap (1MW) 1800m

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Back Me

Tricky race with little depth to my eye. For the sake of a tip, on top is 4 Fear The Wind (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
). His recent runs have come at the mile, the latest being two weeks ago here when near the speed throughout and fought on really well in defeat when a close up third to Currimundi. That form line clearly reads well for this and up in trip, he’ll do me.

Danger

1 Awesome Chatter (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) has been an enigma in a previous life but in more recent times, he has become more consistent and more genuine. He has come back in really good order, winning 2/3 with a third over the mile in between. Last start saw him defy a betting drift to win at Pinjarra under a peach from CJP, who got going on the turn to build the revs/momentum and that move won him the race. Unknown at 1800m but hard to knock the way he’s going.

Long Shot

6 Duchees Demerit (Bet Now: 
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) should be suited back up in trip. He had been racing around the 1800m distance range his past few runs but came back to the mile here last time where he got back in the run and made up minor headway without threatening behind Starchienne, who was flying at the time. Not sure I could back him to win but one to include in wider exotics.

Race 7. (19:15) Supremacy Stakes 1000m

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Back Me

I think Simon Miller wins the race but I reckon 7 Prospector’s Pick (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) can get the verdict over the stablemate. He is on debut and has been unbeaten in two trials, each time ridden by Carbery and the latest trial, he led throughout and seemed to move very well. He elects to ride the stable, but this guy has the map in his corner and will slide forward. Hard to beat.

Danger

9 Live To Tell (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) is a daughter of Territories that resumes and is being considered as the early favourite for the Karrakatta. She came close to beating Brave Halo on debut back in the Spring and was spelled soon after. That guy is the best juvenile in WA so the form is A1 and she looked outstanding in a trial win at Belmont, albeit against unraced types. Tricky draw, but good lead that Carbery sticks with her.

Long Shot

12 Charlie Lane (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) creates interest. David Harrison trained filly that resumes, having not raced since the Carnival towards the end of last year when on speed and sticking on well for fourth in the Crystal Slipper behind Soaring Halo. Interesting she resumes without a public trial…so whether this is the trial? Not sure, but watch the market and see what it does with her.

Race 8. (19:53) Rock Magic Stakes 1000m

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Back Me

Pretty keen here on 9 Baby Paris (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) to resume a winner. Colin Webster trained filly that resumes, having not raced since the Jungle Mist during the Carnival last year when second to a pretty good mare in Sniparoochy, which was 1200m. I do feel like 1000m is her go in life and looked to move well in a recent trial win. Tricky gate, but down in the weights and has the brilliance factor.

Danger

4 Acromantula (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) will jump on the bunny and give them something to chase. They have tried riding him with a sit in recent starts, and to an extent, it has worked, albeit without winning, but he has found the line well enough. In saying that, the map just sets up for him to dominate from the front and with hard fitness under the belt, he’ll take running down.

Long Shot

8 Excellent Dream (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) is a Luke Fernie trained gelding that resumes. This guy last raced during the Carnival last year in the Asian Beau when thrown in the deep end and was outclassed when down the track behind Treasured Star. Interesting he resumes without a trial but can sprint well fresh and does tend to save his best for here, so watch the market.

Race 9. (20:30) Crown Perth Handicap (1MW) 1400m

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Back Me

1 Stellar Vista (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) drops a fair way in grade/depth and clearly appeals. She ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where she was dragged back from the wide gate and I thought she found the line really well late in the piece when third to Western Knight. Has a gate to settle much closer in the run and back to this level, she’ll take beating.

Danger

4 Forever Dreaming (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. With that in mind, she’s one of the hardest to beat for mine. Resumed with a strong win over 1200m at Belmont before going to this track/distance where she had a suck run from the inside gate and was close up in defeat behind Blazing Tycoon. She has that 1400m run under the belt now, which should hold her in good stead.

Long Shot

2 Blazing Tycoon (Bet Now: 
$SP.00
) has a tricky gate to overcome but William Lewthwaite has him absolutely flying. His last couple has come at this track/distance, placing two back before a strong winner here two weeks back in a 0MW race with Pike getting the best out of him. If he can overcome the barrier, I think he’ll be around the mark.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 5 Top Of The Pops

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 9 Baby Paris

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 4 Fear The Wind

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7

Leg Two: 7, 9

Leg Three: 9

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4

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