Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Charting the Global Economy: Sticky Inflation Backs Fed Caution

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(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated in October, helping explain US central bankers’ more cautious approach to interest-rate cuts.

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Top-line inflation in the euro area also picked up, though price growth excluding food and fuel held steady. European Central Bank officials have signaled a fourth reduction in rates at their final policy meeting of the year.

In India, the economy expanded at the slowest rate since the closing months of 2022, while a slump in industrial output helped drive the Turkish economy into a technical recession.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, markets and geopolitics:

US

The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy items, increased 2.8% from October last year and 0.3% from a month earlier. The figures support recent comments by many Fed officials that there’s no rush to cut interest rates so long as the labor market remains healthy and the economy continues to power ahead.

President-elect Donald Trump vowed additional tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, shaking markets with his first specific threats to the US’s top trading partners since his election win three weeks ago. Higher North American tariffs would upend the auto industry and other consumer sectors, including food, in which the three countries are highly integrated.

Europe

Euro-area inflation climbed above the ECB’s 2% target, though officials are unlikely to be deterred from continuing to lower interest rates next month and beyond.

Light winds cut renewable generation in Germany, forcing it to import power from France, where nuclear output reached it’s highest level since January. France’s atomic plants are generating almost 50 gigawatts on Friday, about 20% higher than the average for the year.

Sweden has sent China a formal request for cooperation regarding a commercial Chinese vessel and its potential involvement with a breach of data cables in the Baltic Sea. The bulk carrier, Yi Peng 3, is anchored just outside of Denmark’s territorial waters. Vessels from Sweden, Denmark and Germany have been monitoring it. A high-speed fiber optic cable connecting Finland and Germany was cut over a week ago.

Asia

India’s economy grew at its slowest pace in almost two years, dampening the outlook for the full year and testing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious growth plans.

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