Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Ireland vote points to status quo but PM faces drop in support

Must read

(Bloomberg) — Simon Harris’s Fine Gael party and coalition partner Fianna Fail look set to return to government after the Irish election, but the prime minister could face a battle to keep his post after his popular support appeared to drop.

Most Read from Bloomberg

With counting still ongoing, early tallies and the official exit poll showed little to separate the two main incumbent parties and the opposition Sinn Fein. With no party having enough support to govern alone, the status quo will likely remain after both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail ruled out a deal with Sinn Fein.

Though the overall outcome looks increasingly clear, it’s far from certain Harris will emerge with the upper hand in what could be difficult negotiations with Fianna Fail. Micheal Martin’s party trailed in the official exit poll, but early results suggest it could emerge with the most first-preference votes — the simplest guage of popular support — putting him in a better position in talks.

“It’s far too hard to call at this stage as to who will come out as the largest party,” Harris told RTE on Saturday. “What is clear is that Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein will be tightly bunched when it comes to final seats.”

Martin predicted his Fianna Fail would outperform the exit poll, telling reporters there’s a “route to a very strong finish” for his party. But he cautioned that electoral fragmentation meant forming a government would be “challenging.”

To be sure, the picture could change as counting takes in second-choice and subsequent preferences to determine final makeup of the Dail or parliament.

A tight race is far from what Harris envisaged when he called the vote early — it wasn’t due to be held until March — to try to capitalize on Fine Gael’s surge in support since he became Taoiseach in April.

The media dubbed it the “Harris hop” and the 38-year-old made his campaign slogan “new energy” — despite being a former health minister and established government figure. A giveaway budget and what appeared to be a slump in support for Sinn Fein made it seem the optimal time to seek a new mandate.

But Harris’s campaign was beset with slip-ups, starting with Ryanair Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Michael O’Leary using a Fine Gael event to make a jibe about teachers serving in government. The worst, though, was a viral video of Harris walking away from a disability care worker and dismissing her view that the government wasn’t doing enough. He later apologized.

Latest article