Sunday, May 26, 2024

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid predictions: Champions League tips and odds

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Our betting expert offers three tips for tonight’s Champions League semi-final first-leg between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid at the Allianz Arena (kick-off, 8pm BST). Read on for the detailed analysis behind his choices.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid betting tips

Odds correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Heavyweights hard to separate

Bayern Munich and Real Madrid ended Arsenal and Manchester City’s Champions League respective runs at the quarter-final stage to set up this heavyweight semi-final tie.

It has been a tough season for Bayern, who have been deposed as German champions by Bayer Leverkusen, but they were impressive in the home leg of their tie against Arsenal, winning 1-0 to seal a 3-2 aggregate victory.

Real Madrid, 14-times European champions, showed their class and temperament to knock out holders City on penalties after a pulsating tie.

Both legs ended in draws – 3-3 at the Bernabeu and 1-1 after extra time at the Etihad Stadium – and the first-leg stalemate looks a good bet on Tuesday.

Real followed up their quarter-final success against City with a 3-2 home win over Barcelona, helping them to close in on the title in La Liga.

They had to work hard for their last-16 victory over RB Leipzig, winning 1-0 in Germany before a 1-1 draw in the second leg. Another tight contest is expected at the Allianz Arena, where Bayern have lost only one of their previous 24 Champions league matches.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid tip 1: Draw @ 15/8 with Betfair

Rodrygo can make early impact

Bayern boss Thomas Tuchel has fitness concerns over a number of first-team regulars, but Real expect winger Rodrygo to play despite missing Friday’s 1-0 win at Real Sociedad due to illness.

The Brazilian has a key role to play in Real’s attack and he struck early in both legs against City, scoring in the 14th minute at home and putting his side 1-0 up in the 12th minute in Manchester.

Two of Rodrygo’s three goals in the group stage came in the 16th minute against Braga and the 11th minute against Napoli, so he is a tempting price to open the scoring in Munich.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid tip 2: Rodrygo to score first @ 8/1 with Betfair

Sane selection heads up treble

Leroy Sane was a threat in both legs of Bayern’s quarter-final tie against Arsenal and the winger, who has been carrying an injury, is expected to play through the pain barrier on Tuesday.

Sane has enjoyed a fine season in the Bundesliga, scoring eight goals and contributing 11 assists in 25 starts. We have made one or the other – a goal or assist – the first selection in our bet builder.

Our multiple also features Real’s Eduardo Camavinga to commit two or more fouls. Only two players have committed more fouls than the French youngster’s 17 in this season’s Champions League and the midfielder has also been booked eight times in 1,498 minutes of football in La Liga.

Camavinga is likely to be up against streetwise Bayern midfielder Leon Goretzka, who has licence to get forward and should be backed to have two or more shots.

Goretzka had three attempts at goal in the home win over Arsenal and has had at least two shots in five of his last six Bundesliga starts.

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid tip 3: Bet builder: Sane to score or provide an assist for a goal, Camavinga to commit two or more fouls and Goretzka to have two or more shots @ 5/1 with Betfair

Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid odds

Odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.

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Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid team news

Bayern Munich

Matthijs de Ligt and Konrad Laimer are both doubts after suffering injuries against Eintrach Frankfurt at the weekend and Jamal Musiala is a concern after missing the game altogether. Leroy Sane, Serge Gnabry and Dayot Upamecano are in the same boat and Kingsley Coman is a definite absentee. 

Bayern Munich predicted line-up (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Kimmich, Dier, Kim Min-jae, Davies; Goretzka, Pavlovic; Tel, Muller, Musiala; Kane.

Real Madrid

Jude Bellingham is expected to return after being rested against Real Sociedad on Friday night. Rodrygo was suffering from illness but should also return, however Thibaut Courtois and David Alaba are out injured, while Dani Carvajal is suspended after picking up a yellow card in the last round.

Real Madrid predicted line-up (4-3-1-2): Lunin; Vazquez, Rudiger, Tchouameni, Mendy; Valverde, Camavinga, Kroos; Bellingham; Rodrygo, Vinicius.

Last six results

Bayern Munich

27 Apr BL Bayern 2 Frankfurt 1 W

20 Apr BL Union Berlin 1 Bayern 5 W

17 Apr CL Bayern 1 Arsenal 0 W

13 Apr BL Bayern 2 Cologne 0 W

9 Apr CL Arsenal 2 Bayern 2 D

6 Apr BL Heidenheim 3 Bayern 2 L

Real Madrid

26 Apr LL Real Sociedad 0 Real Madrid 1 W

21 Apr LL Real Madrid 3 Barcelona 2 W

17 Apr CL Man City 1 Real Madrid 1* D

13 Apr LL Mallorca 0 Real Madrid 1 W

9 Apr CL Real Madrid 3 Man City 3 D

31 Mar LL Real Madrid 2 Athletic Bilbao 0 W

*won on penalties 

BL Bundesliga CL Champions League LL La Liga

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